Temperature trends: the Netherlands and worldwide, 1906-2015
The annual mean temperature in the Netherlands has increased by 1.7 oC since 1906. The spring and summer seasons have warmed up the most The average global temperature has increased since 1880 by about 0.9 oC.
Temperature increase in the Netherlands continues unabated
The annual mean temperature in the Netherlands has steadily increased and is now 1.7± 0.6 oC higher than 110 years ago. This is a statistically significant warming. There has been an increase of about 0.03 oC a year over the last 20 years. The year 2014 had the warmest annual mean temperature since the beginning of the CNT temperature series in 1906. Here, CNT stands for Central Netherlands Temperature (Schrier et al. 2011). For station De Bilt the year 2014 was the warmest since 1706.
Temperature increased unequally over the seasons
Warming in the Netherlands varies according to the season. Most warming over the last 100 years was seen in the spring and summer, and least in the winter:
- warming in spring: 1.8 ± 0.8 oC
- warming in summer: 2.1 ± 0.8 oC
- warming in autumn: 1.5 ± 0.6 oC
- warming in winter: 1.3 ± 1.2 oC
Furthermore, the variability in annual temperatures around the long-term trend is highest for winter temperatures. That implies that cold winters cannot be excluded in the present climate of the Netherlands.
Global temperature is also increasing
The global temperature has increased steadily over the last 136 years by 0.9 oC.
The three decennia 1980-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2009 showed a continuous warming and were all three warmer than all preceding decades since 1880 (IPCC, 2013). The year 2015 was an all time record (Tollefson, 2016).
The rate of change in global temperatures is not constant but shows periods with lower and higher rates. After an acceleration at the end of the 20th century warming has slowed down over the past 15 years. These fluctuation are not unique and can be well explained from natural variability of the climate system (PBL/KNMI, 2015; Marotzke and Forster, 2015; Trenberth, 2015).
The Netherlands is warming much faster than rest of world
Until now, it was expected that the Netherlands would warm at about the same rate as the world average. After all, the Netherlands is situated at mid-latitudes and affected by both land and sea climates. However, the Netherlands has warmed more than twice as much as the rest of the world since 1950 (Oldenborgh et al., 2003; 2009). This more rapid warming is probably not due to natural variations, but to the fact that land masses warm more quickly than oceans. In addition, the Netherlands has - as have other parts of Western Europe - been affected by more westerly and south-westerly winds in the late winter and early spring, reduced cloud cover, rising North Sea temperatures and an increase in the amount of solar radiation (due to cleaner air) in the spring and summer.
References
- IPCC, 2013. Climate change 2013. The physical science basis. Working group I contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Eds. S. Solomon et al.). Cambridge University Press.
- Marotzke, J. and P.M. Forster (2015). Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends. Nature 517, 565-570.
- Oldenborgh, G.J. van, and A. van Ulden (2003). On the relationship between global warming, local warming in the Netherlands and changes in circulation in the 20th century, International Journal of Climatology.
- Oldenborgh, G.J. van, S. Drijfhout, A. van Ulden, R. Haarsma, A. Sterl, C. Severijns, W. Hazeleger and H. Dijkstra (2009). Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Climate of the Past 5, 1-12.
- PBL/KNMI (2015). Klimaatverandering: Samenvatting van het vijfde IPCC-assessment en een vertaling naar Nederland. Uitgave PBL en KNMI, PBL-publicatienummer 1405.
- Schrier, G. van der, A. van Ulden and G.J. van Oldenborgh (2011). The construction of a Central Netherlands temperature. Climate of the Past 7, 527-542.
- Tollefson, J. (2016). 2015 breaks heat record. Nature 529, 450-450.
- Trenberth, K.E. (2015). Has there been a hiatus? Internal climate variability masks climate-warming trends. Science 349, 691-692.
Archive for this indicator
Reference for this page
CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR (2016). Temperature trends: the Netherlands and worldwide, 1906-2015 (indicator 0226, version 12 , 16 November 2016 ). www.environmentaldata.nl. Statistics Netherlands (CBS), The Hague; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague; RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven; and Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen.
